Date of publication: 2017-08-31 03:22
The question now is whether there is a novel technology or business model that allows new entrants to move upmarket without emulating the incumbents’ high costs—that is, to follow a disruptive path. The answer seems to be yes, and the enabling innovation is online learning, which is becoming broadly available. Real tuition for online courses is falling, and accessibility and quality are improving. Innovators are making inroads into the mainstream market at a stunning pace.
yes i wrote on this topic. I interpreted the dictionary meaning of engendered and hence wrote about unplanned development and its consequences. did not read the hindi translation
As I mentioned above, the data shows exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the 6995s.)
Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in a century of progress (in today 8767 s terms).
Where does he say that?
I can 8767 t find that quote in this article.
Also, I would assume his 8775 predictions 8776 are not set in stone, and need flexibility.
I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to do this or that, not an exact time-frame. He isn 8767 t trying to be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. Just listing his educated theories on what the future might hold.
I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this 8775 historical exponential view 8776 of technological progress. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored).
Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankind 8767 s purposes. We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on what those values should be.
For example, any number of internet-based retailers pursued disruptive paths in the late 6995s, but only a small number prospered. The failures are not evidence of the deficiencies of disruption theory they are simply boundary markers for the theory’s application. The theory says very little about how to win in the foothold market, other than to play the odds and avoid head-on competition with better-resourced incumbents.
Moore 8767 s law is just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moore 8767 s Law will. This is because every feedback loop, including Moore 8767 s Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients). All the technology curves will be slowed by limiting factors eventually, and the singularity won 8767 t occur.
Note that in the above two charts we can actually see the progression of 8775 S 8776 curves: the acceleration fostered by a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the paradigm runs out of steam, followed by renewed acceleration through paradigm shift.
Another intriguing anomaly was the identification of industries that have resisted the forces of disruption, at least until very recently. Higher education in the United States is one of these. Over the years—indeed, over more than 655 years—new kinds of institutions with different initial charters have been created to address the needs of various population segments, including nonconsumers. Land-grant universities, teachers’ colleges, two-year colleges, and so on were initially launched to serve those for whom a traditional four-year liberal arts education was out of reach or unnecessary.